The Case for Swing States: How the Republican Party Survives another Century (Part 1)

Whether or not my research is correct, or whether people agree with my data and analysis. I have decided to dig through the data, the history and learn from it.

 

This series will be an in depth analysis from a millennial, and the future of this country.

 

We are college students, newly weds, parents and most importantly the workforce and the future leadership for this nation.

 

Most importantly I want to focus on swing states (narrowing down my research). But also to help analyze how America is changing, the culture, the genetic make up, and why some years democrats win, and why some years Republicans win.

 

I want to learn what happened. I want to learn what voters want. I want to learn how and if The Republican Party can survive another century.

 

This first part will be a short analysis of the autopsy report, more of an opinion piece before we explore this together, before I get into the numbers and research of each section.

 

Rmoney: The end of 2012 & New Hope

 

To start, we look at the 2012 Autopsy Report- I chose small snap shots throughout the report that I felt were the most relevant to this discussion:

 

“We have become expert in how to provide ideological reinforcement to like-minded people, but devastatingly we have lost the ability to be persuasive with, or welcoming to, those who do not agree with us on every issue.” (Babour).

 

  • Both parties have become about purity of ideas. As can be seen with the rise of Bernie Sanders and the rise of Trump. Both candidates are crusaders for issues that are far from the center. (More on this later).
  • In the area of social media it is increasingly more easy to isolate oneself.
  • The rise of podcasts, radio hosts, and tailored news sources have made it easy to only get one side of the argument without ever having to hear the other side.
  • Candidates on the right have consistently called media such as: MSNBC, CNN, New York Times, Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post (Just to name a few). “Lame stream media.” And “biased.” Creating a severe distrust of the media by Republican voters.

 

“We need to remain America’s conservative alternative to big-government, redistribution-to-extremes liberalism, while building a route into our Party that a non-traditional Republican will want to travel. Our standard should not be universal purity; it should be a more welcoming conservatism.” (Barbour).

 

  • Religious freedom, small government, low taxes, strong foreign policy, and a free market economy. These are the adjectives I think of to describe the Republican party that I idealistically joined as a young high school freshman.
  • The economic message presented by the Republican party has always enticed American voters, but the heated and isolating rhetoric that came with turned most voters away.
  • There are two major parties in American politics. The Single Member District electoral system that the United States has works best with a two party system, and normally ends up with a two party system.
  • With such a large and diverse country the two parties have had to become “Big Tents”. With this the two parties have to be welcoming to a large group of people, from many backgrounds, with many differences on policy.
  • With the emergence of “purifying the party” the Republican party has begun to isolate itself with the emergence of a smaller faction taking over the party.

 

“Young voters are increasingly rolling their eyes
at what the Party represents, and many minorities wrongly think that Republicans do not like them or want them in the country. When someone rolls their eyes at us, they are not likely to open their ears to us.” (Barbour).

 

  • As a Buff I had the pleasure of seeing Bernie Sanders speak and the huge following of Boulder students that he amassed.
  • His message resonated with college students. Debt, cost of college, the economy, race, and gender are all important conversations to youth voters.
  • Millenials resonate best with things they read on Facebook, twitter and can connect to emotionally.
  • Republicans tend to come off as dry, robotic, out of touch. The Republican primary candidates rarely spoke about the cost of college. They did not engage in meaningful conversations about race, and immigration. They still pushed a narrative of overturning Obergefell v. Hodges.
  • A small base was pandered to over outreach to new voters.
  • Candidates who tried to reach outside of the party and bring in fresh ideas, were crushed by the far-right policies of Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.

 

“President George W. Bush used to say, “Family values don’t stop at the Rio Grande and a hungry mother is going to try to feed her child.” When Hispanics heard that, they knew he cared and were willing to listen to his policies on education, jobs, spending, etc. Because his first sentence struck

a chord, Hispanic Americans were willing to listen to his second sentence. We heard this from other demographic groups as well. President Bush got 44 percent of the Hispanic vote, a modern-day record for a Republican presidential candidate.” (Barbour).

 

  • There is a large Hispanic population in the United States. Especially in Colorado. Focusing on how to win over, and attract Hispanic voters will be pivotal in placing a Republican in the White House.

 

 

“In 1980, exit polls tell us that the electorate was 88 percent white. In 2012, it was 72 percent white. Hispanics made up 7 percent of the electorate in 2000, 8 percent in 2004, 9 percent in 2008 and 10 percent in 2012. According to the Pew Hispanic Center, in 2050, whites will be 47 percent

of the country while Hispanics will grow to 29 percent and Asians to 9 percent.” (Barbour).

 

  • Loosing the Hispanic vote could ruin the Republican Party for decades to come. The democrats were able to win over Black voters in the 60’s changing the make up of both parties. The Republican party cannot survive without winning over Hispanic voters.

 

 

Through my analysis I will be discovering how voter demographics and trends have changed over the years.

 

What the modern voter, and the voter of the future will be looking for.

 

How America has changed, and how the Republican party needs to be able to change with the rest of the country.

 

I will be focusing on swing states as smaller examples of culture, change and the American voter.

 

Barbour, Henry, Sally Bradshaw, Ari Fleischer, Zori Fonalledas, and Glenn McCall. “Growth & Opportunity Project.” Growth & Opportunity Project (2013): n. pag. Web. 8 Aug. 2016.

 

http://goproject.gop.com/rnc_growth_opportunity_book_2013.pdf

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s